Evidence of Self‐Organized Criticality in riverbank mass failures: a matter of perspective?          下载免费PDF全文

Jacky Croke  Robert Denham  Chris Thompson  James Grove 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(7):953-964

A growing body of field, theoretical and numerical modelling studies suggests that predicting river response to even major changes in input variables is difficult. Rivers are seen to adjust rapidly and variably through time and space as well as changing independently of major driving variables. Concepts such as Self‐Organized Criticality (SOC) are considered to better reflect the complex interactions and adjustments occurring in systems than traditional approaches of cause and effect. This study tests the hypothesis that riverbank mass failures which occurred both prior to, and during, an extreme flood event in southeast Queensland (SEQ) in 2011 are a manifestation of SOC. Each wet‐flow failure is somewhat analogous to the ‘avalanche’ described in the initial sand‐pile experiments of Bak et al. (Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4), 381–384) and, due to the use of multitemporal LiDAR, the time period of instability can be effectively constrained to that surrounding the flood event. The data is examined with respect to the key factors thought to be significant in evaluating the existence of SOC including; non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events within the system; an inverse power‐law relation between the magnitude and frequency of the events; the existence of a critical state to which the system readjusts after a disturbance; the existence of a cascading processes mechanism by which the same process can initiate both low‐magnitude and high‐magnitude events. While there was a significant change in the frequency of mass failures pre‐ and post‐flood, suggesting non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events, the data did not fit an inverse power‐law within acceptable probability and other models were found to fit the data better. Likewise, determining a single ‘critical’ state is problematic when a variety of feedbacks and multiple modes of adjustment are likely to have operated throughout this high magnitude event. Overall, the extent to which the data supports a self‐organized critical state is variable and highly dependent upon inferential arguments. Investigating the existence of SOC, however, provided results and insights that are useful to the management and future prediction of these features. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Optical dating of St. Lawrence Iroquoian ceramics from the Mailhot-Curran site,southern Québec     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2015

Infrared-stimulated luminescence dating (IRSL) was applied on pottery sherds from the Mailhot-Curran archaeological site (BgFn-2), a Late Woodland period village located in the Saint-Anicet region, southern Québec (Canada). This site witnessed the presence of St. Lawrence Iroquoians and is thought to have been occupied roughly 500 years ago. The main goal of this study is to chronologically constrain the occupation of this site in order to establish a fine chronological sequence for the occupations of various sites found in this area. The IRSL is used to complement previous dating methods used for Mailhot-Curran (radiocarbon and seriation of the archaeological remains).Dating results are reported for ten samples of local ceramics made from Quaternary Champlain Sea clay. Luminescence dating on fine grains was preferentially used, since feldspar luminescence typically emit a decent luminescence signal. Although the latter was rather dim, anomalous fading was measured and luminescence ages were successfully corrected. It is therefore possible to validate the occupation age of this site.  相似文献   

Using a fluvial archive to place extreme flood sediment (dis)connectivity dynamics in context of a longer-term record     

Kirstie Fryirs  Chris Thompson  Damian Gore 《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(4):447-456

The aim of this study was to establish the source and provenance of sediments deposited in a large floodplain sink during extreme floods in the Lockyer Creek catchment, Australia, in 2011 and 2013. We place the sediment source patterns in context of the longer-term record to determine whether coarse-grained sediment sources (i.e., very fine sand to very coarse sand) and the spatio-temporal pattern of (dis)connectivity have changed over time. We do this by matching the geochemical properties and age structure of a sediment profile located in a downstream floodplain sink to the elemental composition of source sediments. One hundred and fifty-seven sediment samples from 20 sites across the catchment are analysed using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometry to compare the elemental ratio composition of the downstream floodplain sink to its source materials. We use Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating to determine the age structure of the sediments in the floodplain sink. The northern tributaries and parts of the Lockyer River trunk stream are the primary sources of coarse sediment. These areas are connected (coupled) to the lower trunk stream and floodplain sediment sink. Southern tributaries are largely disconnected (decoupled) and supply little sediment to the floodplain sediment sink. This pattern of sediment source contribution has remained similar over the last 6.8 ka at least. Sediment sources as observed in the 2011 flood have predominated over the mid-late Holocene whilst those in the 2013 flood are rare.  相似文献   

川西岷江河谷典型大型—巨型古滑坡特征物探解译分析     

郭桥桥  郭长宝  申维  张国华  宋昊翔  周清强 《地质力学学报》2017,23(5):788-797

在遥感解译、野外调查的基础上,采用高密度电法和电阻率测深法,并结合钻探对川西岷江河谷发育的尕米寺滑坡、俄寨村滑坡、格机寨滑坡等典型大型—巨型古滑坡的空间结构进行了勘探分析,有效确定了古滑坡的空间结构和滑带特征,并认为古滑坡的滑动面多具有高低阻相间的不稳定电性层,且滑坡前缘多位于不稳定电性层变薄收敛的地方。其中,俄寨村滑坡高低阻相间的不稳定电性层厚约0~45 m,为滑坡堆积层,古滑动面紧贴基岩面,滑动面平均埋深约30 m,弱风化基岩面埋深约5.6~61 m,强风化层厚约为3~12 m;尕米寺滑坡高低阻相间的不稳定电性层厚约2.5~43 m,为滑坡堆积层,沿剖面古滑动面平均埋深约35 m,在滑坡中部存在一圈闭的低阻异常体,推测为古河道,并与钻探结果相吻合,其埋深约56~96 m,弱风化基岩面埋深13.3~100 m,强风化及岩溶综合层厚一般约为5~20 m。基于古滑坡的地球物理勘探数据和解译结果,统计分析了川西岷江河谷地区大型—巨型古滑坡空间岩土体的地球物理物性参数,对指导该区滑坡调查分析具有重要的指导意义。  相似文献   

长江中下游成矿带矿产勘查-科研工作回顾和展望   总被引：8，自引：5，他引：3  

常印佛  周涛发  范裕 《岩石学报》2017,33(11):3333-3352

长江中下游成矿带是我国勘查-研究程度相当高的成矿带之一,地质勘查和相关研究工作可以追溯到二十世纪初。本文简要对成矿带自二十世纪初至今的勘查-科研工作成果进行了概括性回顾和综述。中华人民共和国成立后成矿带勘查研究工作总体上可以分为三个阶段:(1)第一阶段:点上起步、由点到面;(2)第二阶段:区域展开、重点突破;(3)第三阶段:立体调查、深部找矿。近年来,长江中下游成矿带的地质找矿和科学研究均取得了重要进展,主要集中在以下几方面:(1)控矿构造格架(包括大地构造,后期还尝试引入了动力学背景的探讨);(2)成岩成矿作用的时代;(3)成矿系列(系统)及其演化;(4)成矿规律;(5)深部找矿。包括本专辑(代序)20余篇文章在内的近年来的找矿新发现、新突破以及对成矿的新认识,深化了成矿带成矿理论研究,指示成矿带特别是深部"第二找矿空间"具有很好的成矿潜力,同时也揭示了成矿带值得关注和仍有待进一步研究的科学问题。  相似文献   

Indonesian aquaculture futures: An analysis of fish supply and demand in Indonesia to 2030 and role of aquaculture using the AsiaFish model     

《Marine Policy》2017

This paper explores the seafood sector in Indonesia, using fish supply-demand modeling, with special focus on the growing role of aquaculture in the country's food portfolio. The paper describes six scenarios for future fish supply–demand dynamics and examines the role of aquaculture growth in fish supply in Indonesia. A business as usual scenario (BAU) assumed exogenous variables of our supply-demand model following historical trends. Five alternative scenarios explored the implications of stagnant capture fisheries; export-oriented growth of aquaculture; domestic-oriented aquaculture growth; slow growth of aquaculture sector; and disease outbreaks to key aquaculture species. The BAU scenario projected that fish supply and demand in Indonesia continues to increase over time and strong aquaculture growth is critical to meet increasing demand for fish. Stagnant capture fisheries resulted in increasing fish prices and decreasing fish consumption. Export-oriented aquaculture growth benefitted fish supply and exports, but also helped lower domestic prices and thus increase consumption. An emphasis on domestic aquaculture commodities increased fish supply, providing best domestic consumption outcomes and lower consumer prices. Slow aquaculture growth reduced fish supply and led to undesirable increases in domestic prices and decreasing domestic consumption as a consequence. Disease outbreaks in shrimp and carp aquaculture resulted in a short-term reduction in aquaculture output and increasing fish prices, lowering fish consumption.  相似文献   

Using input–output methods to assess the effects of fishing and aquaculture on a regional economy: The case of Galicia,Spain     

《Marine Policy》2017

This paper uses an input–output model to quantify the socioeconomic impact of fishing and aquaculture on Galicia, one of Spain's most important maritime regions. Results indicate that the carryover effects of these production activities are important for Galicia's economy because they contribute not only to job creation but also to possibilities for obtaining income in other economic sectors. These sectors’ combined production in 2013 was almost a million euros, and that production was estimated to account for nearly 2% of the regional economy's value added and for more than 17,000 full-time jobs. Together these contributions amounted to some €1.7 billion in production and €975 million in value added to other Galician economic activities. At the same time, fishing and aquaculture were responsible for creating the equivalent of more than 14,000 full-time jobs in other economic activities.  相似文献   

Business case for mussel aquaculture in offshore wind farms in the North Sea     

《Marine Policy》2017

The European Blue Growth strategy aims to expand the new maritime sectors of aquaculture, energy, biotechnology, coastal tourism and mineral mining. Growth of these sectors will increases pressure on the seas, particularly on those areas that are densely used by traditional sectors such as fisheries and transport. This has triggered interest in developing multiuse of space and multiuse platforms at sea. This paper assesses the feasibility of offshore mussel production project in wind farms by design and ex-ante evaluation of a mussel aquaculture system in the North Sea. A system for mussel cultivation in the Dutch Borssele offshore wind farm was designed, producing both mussel seed and consumption-sized mussels with semi-submerged longlines. Based on the economic model and the risk assessment, this paper concludes that mussel aquaculture is an appealing commercial model for increased returns in offshore wind farms. The economic models shows that the internal rate of return and net present value are positive and based on the sensitivity analysis, it can be concluded that these results are robust.  相似文献   

长江中下游成矿带及邻区Moho深度与成矿背景探讨   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

陈安国  周涛发  刘东甲  葛粲 《地质学报》2017,91(6):1299-1311

长江中下游成矿带是我国最主要的铜铁金多金属成矿带之一。本文利用卫星重力数据计算布格重力异常,采用波数域迭代的Parker-Oldenburg位场迭代反演方法,通过重力数据反演获得长江中下游成矿带及邻区的三维Moho面结构,结合研究区已有的研究成果,探讨了研究区的深部构造格局。研究结果表明:研究区范围内Moho面总体从南西往北东有逐渐变浅趋势,最浅处位于长江口海域和杭州湾海域约28~29km,最深处位于大别山区约38~39km;长江中下游及邻区下方Moho面的隆起形态呈"V"字型,与地表的"V"字型构造特征相呼应,Moho面隆起的最深处位于"V"字型转折端附近,向两侧Moho面呈抬升状,北东走向的"V"字型东支隆起幅度和规模都要明显大于北西走向的"V"字型西支;卫星化极磁异常显示长江中下游成矿带的正磁异常高值集中分布在"V"字型东支的宁芜、庐枞、繁昌、怀宁等火山岩盆地;钦杭成矿带东段Moho面也明显上隆,隆起的中心沿钦杭成矿带的南侧边界断裂的东南侧线性分布。长江中下游成矿带和钦杭成矿带东段的Moho面条带状隆起带可能指示了地幔上隆、岩浆上涌并在壳幔边界处与下地壳发生底侵作用的深部边界,来自于壳、幔的深部含矿岩浆通过深大断裂等地壳薄弱点向上运移,并在适当的位置形成金属矿集区。  相似文献   

The oldest Mo porphyry mineralization in the Yangtze Valley Metallogenic Belt of eastern China: Constraints on its origin from geochemistry,geochronology and fluid inclusion studies at Matou     

《Ore Geology Reviews》2017

The Matou Mo(-Cu) deposit, located in the Yangtze Valley Metallogenic Belt of central-eastern China, is a typical porphyry-type Mo deposit. The orebodies at the deposit are hosted by Matou porphyritic granodiorite, which is the largest intrusive in the area. Quartz vein-type and disseminated sulfide mineralization are well developed in the porphyry and near its contact with Silurian sandstone. Crosscutting relationships indicate that porphyritic granodiorite is the oldest phase in the pluton, which is crosscut by a porphyritic diorite containing traces of chalcopyrite, and later dolerite dykes. These phases have U-Pb zircon dates of 147 ± 3, 140 ± 1 and 135 ± 1 Ma, which confirms the cross-cutting relationships observed in the field. A Re-Os molybdenite isochron age of 147 ± 4 Ma indicates that the porphyritic granodiorite is the source of the oldest Mo mineralization in the metallogenic belt and was formed during a change of the tectonic setting in the area, from an intracontinental orogeny to extensional tectonics. From 147 to 135 Ma, crust-mantle interaction played an important role in the formation of magmatic rocks at Matou. Systematic petrological and geochemistry investigations reveal that the three phases have a crust source with minor input from the mantle. Investigation of ore-forming fluid, H-O isotopes, S isotopes, and the Re content of molybdenite indicate that the ore-forming fluid and metals were derived from the lower crust. During the evolution of fluid from initial magmatic fluids (stage I) to ore-forming fluids (stage II), fluid boiling accompanied by the input of relatively cooler meteoric water led to the deposition of the Mo mineralization.  相似文献